{"id":36776,"date":"2026-03-13T15:46:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T15:46:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/13\/sp-500-breaking-out-again-what-this-means-for-your-portfolio\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T15:46:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T15:46:46","slug":"sp-500-breaking-out-again-what-this-means-for-your-portfolio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/13\/sp-500-breaking-out-again-what-this-means-for-your-portfolio\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The S&P 500<\/strong> ($SPX)\u00a0just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout<\/strong>, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.<\/p>\n

How much longer can this last? That\u2019s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it\u2019s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change \u2014 yet.<\/p>\n\n

While some are calling this rally \u201chistoric,\u201d we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.<\/p>\n

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven <\/em>consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.<\/p>\n\n

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up<\/strong><\/h2>\n

If there\u2019s been one gripe about this rally, it\u2019s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we\u2019ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag \u2014 that\u2019s normal. What we really<\/em> want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.<\/p>\n\n

As of Wednesday\u2019s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That\u2019s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.<\/p>\n

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.<\/p>\n\n

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks \u2014 as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still \u201cGo\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The GoNoGo Trend<\/strong> remains in bullish mode<\/strong>, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.<\/p>\n\n

Active Bullish Patterns<\/strong><\/h2>\n

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555<\/strong> and 6,745<\/strong>, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.<\/p>\n\n\n

Failed Bearish Patterns<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern<\/a> on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.<\/span><\/p>\n\n

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can\u2019t be formed, let alone be broken down from.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.<\/p>\n\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 ($SPX)\u00a0just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside. How much longer can this last? That\u2019s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":36520,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-36776","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-stocks"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36776"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36776\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36520"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/americanfinancecore.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}